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CNX Translation Forum • View topic - Long Term Charts Thai Stock Market (Thai SET) January 2011

Long Term Charts Thai Stock Market (Thai SET) January 2011

Business questions, issues with translation agencies, payment...

Long Term Charts Thai Stock Market (Thai SET) January 2011

Postby onanong » 21 Jan 2011 10:59

Here's our bi-annual update for the long term charts of the Thai stock market.

The chart below is the SET index between 1975 and January 2011, it has raised sharply during the last six months.
Image

The PER moved from 12 to 15 in the last six months, so the earnings did not really keep up with the stock price increase. Historically speaking, a PER of 15 is relatively high for the Thai stock market although not in bubble territory yet. Six months earlier, I was expecting a short term correction which did not occur, so such correction should be more likely in the next 6 months.
Image

The price to book value is now around 2 and (if we exclude the period between 1988 to 1996, where PE were in bubble) is still reasonable although it went up from around 1.6 six months ago.
Image

To conclude the stock market seems relatively overvalued right now on a historical basis, the average dividend yield has fallen to 2.92% (vs 3.84% 6 months ago) which is still slightly higher than what you can get in fixed deposit (Bangkok Bank now offers 2.25% p.a for a 15 months fixed deposit).

See you in 6 months for the next update.
On-anong
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