Long Term Charts Thai Stock Market (Thai SET) January 2012

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Long Term Charts Thai Stock Market (Thai SET) January 2012

Postby onanong » 21 Jan 2012 19:19

Here's our bi-annual update for the long term charts of the Thai stock market.

The chart below is the SET index between 1975 and January 2012, it has fallen sharply after July before rebounding and now stands at 1058.66.

Image

The PER went from 14.5 to 12 in the last six months, due to the correction and earnings improvements. This kind of PER is neutral if we compare it to the PE history to the Thai SET. Six months ago, I expected a correction due to the relatively high PE which occurred and now I'm neither bullish not bearish based on this metric.
Image

The price to book value went down to 1.87 (vs 2.14 in July) which makes Thai stocks slightly more attractive compared to 6 months ago.
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To conclude, I believe the Thai stock market is fairly valued at those levels and the average dividend yield is 3.72% (vs 2.92% 6 months ago) which is comparable to what you can get in a fixed deposit (Bangkok Bank now offers up to 3.5 % p.a for a 36 months fixed deposit). I would neither by buyer or seller. However, if your investments are concentrated in US and/or European economies, you may still consider buying Thai stocks as Emerging economies become less reliant on Western economies (although there is no complete decoupling just yet) and Thai banks have virtually no exposure to European debts which make them more resilient should a recession occur in western economies this year.

See you in 6 months for the next update.
On-anong
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